Upset looming as Bulldogs set to bark

Canterbury’s strong record as an outsider and the form of big underdogs in Round 1 make Canterbury strong plays against the overrated Parramatta.

The Bulldogs are 23-12 against the line when getting 6.5 or more since 2016 while the Eels have covered just 3 of 12 when favoured by more than a converted try. Teams not forced to travel interstate getting a start of 4 or more in Round 1 are 17-7 against the spread.

Long-time rivals Parramatta and Canterbury have seen the tide of the feud swing in recent years with the Eels winning six of the last eight meetings. The Bulldogs won the last meeting – and first-ever meeting at BankWest – 12-6 in Round 23 last year. The under has hit in 17 of 25 meetings since 2008 with eight of the last nine failing to surpass 32 combined points.

Parramatta come into the season off a 28-24 loss to Souths followed by a 22-all draw with Penrith in Bega.The Eels lost in the semis of the Nines. Canterbury defeated Cronulla 30-18 in their opening trial before going down 12-10 to Canberra. The Bulldogs did not advance past the group stage in the Nines.

The Wolf is prepared to put recent history and recent form to one side here though and take Canterbury. They are in a quality spot and clearly present the value.

ERL prediction

Parramatta Eels for the win.

If we had to pick a Line

Parramatta Eels -8.5