Projected Arm Wrestle Presents Value

The Wolf is all over the Melbourne Storm to win the premiership but is very confident Cronulla can run them close and perhaps even pull off the upset this week at Cronulla’s new home base of Jubilee Stadium.

Cronulla have a strong recent record against Melbourne with six wins in their last 10 meetings including the 2016 Grand Final. The Storm won the last meeting 40-16 but have not won two straight against Cronulla since 2015. Cronulla have won four of the last five against Melbourne in Sydney.

The Sharks are the play though based on the uber-reliable angle of big home underdogs early in the season. Home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the year have covered 46 of 64 since 2008. That is enough for The Wolf.

The under is also a play in this one. Only one of the last 11 meetings have topped 38 points. The under is 15-6 in Storm-Sharks games since 2008. The under is 25-17 when Cronulla are away from Shark Park and is 16-7 when the Sharks are an underdog away from Shark Park. The under has hit in 9 of 14 Storm interstate night games and is 33-22 when the Storm are favoured by 4.5 or more.

H2H: Sharks ($2.60)
Best Bet: Sharks +5.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sharks +5.5/Under 37.5/Sione Katoa To Score A Try ($6.52)

ERL Prediction

Melbourne Storm for the win

If we had to pick a line

Melbourne Storm -5.5